Who will win? Find out who’s up, who’s down and which party is leading in the latest poll results. See how the next federal election is shaping up with Guardian Australia’s statistical model, which combines all opinion polls to get a better estimate of the two-party preferred vote
As the 2025 Australian federal election approaches, political polls are coming thick and fast. This page will be regularly updated so you can track who is polling up, how the independents are faring and how the parties stand with different demographics.
This first chart is based on a poll averaging model developed by political scientists at the University of Sydney. It factors in sample sizes, previous results and “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
